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A “crisis team” will be working at the Academy Awards Sunday night, hoping to prevent — or at least quickly deal with — any trouble like last year’s infamous onstage slap of comedian Chris Rock by actor Will Smith.
The vaguely defined team will “act swiftly, compassionately and decisively,” academy CEO Bill Kramer told Time magazine, but a repeat of “The Slap” seems highly unlikely in such closely watched circumstances.
What the crisis crew might more usefully do is administer smelling salts to revive the many nominated hopefuls and backers of “Everything Everywhere All at Once” should this celebrated film by upstart writers/directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert fail to win Best Picture. It’s heavily favoured to take top gold, along with other prizes from its leading 11 nominations.
The yearlong journey of this sci-fi multiverse mind bender from Oscars long shot to leading contender is the main story of these 95th Academy Awards. It indicates a warmer embrace of innovation and diversity by a group historically bound by tradition and exclusion.
It’s a Cinderella story at that, with “Everything Everywhere” lead star Michelle Yeoh, at the age of 60, poised to become the first Asian woman to win Best Actress.
This won’t be the only compelling narrative to follow during the four-hour Oscars telecast. Here are a few others to keep you glued to your armchair:
- An impressive number of Canadian nominees are competing in multiple categories, including two for Best Picture: rape-reckoning drama “Women Talking” by Toronto’s Sarah Polley and sci-fi blockbuster “Avatar: The Way of Water” by Ontario-born James Cameron.
- An unusual battle of two Best Picture nominees (out of 10) that each have four nominated actors — “Everything Everywhere” and “The Banshees of Inisherin” — indicates potentially divided loyalties by the actor-dominated academy.
- It’s the most competitive acting races in years, with only Best Supporting Actor considered a lock.
Finally, what happens around midnight Sunday if “Everything Everywhere” isn’t crowned Best Picture? Voting closed this week with straw polls indicating a late surge of support for First World War drama “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which recently swept the BAFTAs, Britain’s version of the Oscars.
You might need some smelling salts yourself, or maybe have to slap yourself awake, if an upset of this magnitude happens. To help you navigate the likely winners, along with the “could” and “should” contenders, here’s my annual column of Oscar predictions:
Best Picture
Will: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Could: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Top Gun: Maverick”
Should: “Tár”
Why: In theory, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has this category all sewn up. Despite an early stumble on the campaign trail — Martin McDonagh’s friendship dramedy “The Banshees of Inisherin” and Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical saga “The Fabelmans” dominated the Golden Globes — “EEAAO” has managed to win where it counts in more recent precursor contests.
“Everything Everywhere” achieved the nifty feat of winning top prizes bestowed by guilds for producers, directors, actors and writers, a potent combination that historically leads directly to Best Picture at the Oscars. Still, there’s much muttering around the academy campfire that jokes about butt plugs, sentient rocks and hot-dog fingers didn’t play well with many boomer-aged Oscar voters, who might be inclined to go for a more traditional Best Picture nominee like Edward Berger’s gripping war story “All Quiet on the Western Front” or Joseph Kosinski’s summer action flick “Top Gun: Maverick,” a Tom Cruise vehicle credited with sparking a post-pandemic return to movie theatres.
We also can’t count out “Banshees” and “Fabelmans,” which have many supporters and nominations, or Todd Field’s critically acclaimed psychodrama “Tár,” which stars Cate Blanchett in the role of a lifetime as a predatory orchestra conductor.
The films least likely to win, according to know-it-alls in the “Oscar conversation,” are Baz Luhrmann’s musical biopic “Elvis,” Ruben Östlund’s eat-the-rich satire “Triangle of Sadness” and the two Canuck-helmed films, Cameron’s “Avatar” and Polley’s “Women Talking.”
All 10 Best Picture nominees are worthy this year, never a sure thing. If I had a vote it would go to “Tár,” an original story about power, celebrity and cancel culture that I wanted to talk about more than any other film this past year — with the exception of Jordan Peele’s sci-fi saga “Nope,” which didn’t get a single Oscar nom. Shame!
Best Director
Will: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Could: Todd Field, “Tár,” or Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin,” or Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Should: Todd Field
Why: You’ve got to give it up for category favourites Kwan and Scheinert, a.k.a. “Daniels,” for pulling off such a stunning success with “Everything Everywhere.” I’ll raise a glass of Prosecco in their honour if they win, and ditto for their serious rivals Field, McDonagh and Spielberg, who all have a chance at an upset. The only nominee of the five with zero chance of winning is Sweden’s Östlund, who can console himself with the memory of winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes last year. As for me, I’d vote for Field if I could, for his mastery of image, concept and character.
Best Actress
Will: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Could: Cate Blanchett, “Tár”
Should: Cate Blanchett
Why: Yeoh’s win at the recent Screen Actors Guild Awards and her impassioned acceptance speech about embracing diversity likely turned the tide for her in a very close race with Blanchett, who already has two Oscars. This would be Yeoh’s first, and it would be well deserved for how nimbly she negotiates a character who morphs into a host of different versions of herself. This category is always packed with potential winners, and it would be cool if Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”), Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) or Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) managed to pull off upset wins. My choice would be the luminous Blanchett as the sinister cipher Lydia Tár in “Tár,” a role for the ages that she aces.
Best Actor
Will: Austin Butler, “Elvis”
Could: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale,” or Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Should: Austin Butler
Why: It’s been a tussle for months between Butler and Fraser, with Fraser seeming to have gained the edge with his recent win at the SAG Awards. We can’t rule out long overdue Colin Farrell, whose performance in “Banshees” could cut through the chill of a stiff sea breeze. I was also hugely impressed with Bill Nighy in “Living” and Paul Mescal in “Aftersun,” films I counted among favourites of 2022. But I think voters will go for the hard-campaigning Butler, whose magnetic take on Elvis Presley exceeded mere imitation to achieve greatness. He’d be my pick, too.
Best Supporting Actress
Will: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Could: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” or Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Should: Kerry Condon
Why: Angela Bassett’s righteously regal performance in the “Black Panther” sequel would make her the first actor in a Marvel Cinematic Universe movie to win an acting Oscar. That’s just one of many reasons why this abundantly talented actor will likely take the gold, despite a strong challenge from “EEAAO’s” Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu, whose supporters might cancel each other out. The best chance of an upset, and my personal choice, comes from Kerry Condon of “Banshees,” as the smart island-dwelling woman who knows how to stir a stew of dumb males. This leaves Hong Chau of “The Whale,” unlikely to win, but another strong contender whose future looks bright.
Best Supporting Actor
Will: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Could: Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin,” or Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Should: Barry Keoghan
Why: There’s no safer bet at these Academy Awards than sentimental favourite Ke Huy Quan, fondly remembered as precocious child sidekick “Short Round” opposite Harrison Ford in “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” and the inventive Data in “The Goonies,” both from the 1980s. He hasn’t been in a film for some 20 years, making his affecting turn as Michelle Yeoh’s beleaguered husband Waymond in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” all the more impactful. He’s thoroughly deserving, but my preference is for another underappreciated actor, Barry Keoghan of “The Banshees of Inisherin.” He plays the village fool of sly insights who can’t quite mask a heart that’s easily broken. Keoghan has competition from his “Banshees” co-star Brendan Gleeson, who superbly plays the gruff impetus for the film’s friendship tussle. The two might well split the “Banshees” vote. As for Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”) and Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway), they’re worthy but not front of the line for glory this year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will: “Women Talking”
Could: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Should: “Women Talking”
Why: The screenplay categories are often used by Oscar voters to salute films they liked but didn’t ultimately choose for Best Picture. This bodes well for “Women Talking,” a drama of communal sexual reckoning in a remote Mennonite community that Sarah Polley distilled from the novel of the same name by fellow Canadian Miriam Toews. Polley expertly turned the circular prose into gripping cinema, truly adapting the work for another medium. I’m picking it to win, but voters might opt to park their votes here for “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which is adapted from a classic novel. The other contenders — “Living,” “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” — all have their supporters, but likely not enough to make a difference.
Best Original Screenplay
Will: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Could: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Should: “Tár”
Why: Could there by anything more original than the story of “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” in which a family of Asian-American laundromat owners have to transform themselves into multiple avengers to save and/or destroy a multitude of universes? I think not and it’s entirely likely that “EEAAO” fever will make this an early winner for Daniels on Oscar night. But this could also be a place where voters honour “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which owes so much to writer/director Martin McDonagh’s wicked sense of humour, and there’s much merit in fellow rivals “Tár” (my personal pick), “The Fabelmans” and “Triangle of Sadness.”
And the Rest …
- Besides winning for picture, director, actress, supporting actor and original screenplay, I see “Everything Everywhere All at Once” also taking the Best Film Editing prize for a total of six wins out of 11 nominations. It’s a marvel how editor Paul Rogers pulled all the competing characters and universes together.
- The best chance for a Canadian winner at the Oscars may well be Torontonian Daniel Roher’s Best Documentary Feature nominee “Navalny,” a timely look at imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny — and a poke at Russian warmonger Vladimir Putin — that has been a front-runner since its premiere at Sundance 2022. Most pundits give it the win, but there’s major Canuck content in main rival “Fire of Love,” a volcanic romance produced by Montreal’s Ina Fichman and American-Canadian Shane Boris.
- Another maple matchup to watch is in the Best Animated Feature category, where Torontonian Domee Shi’s “Turning Red” is in the running and so is “The Sea Beast” by Ontario-raised Chris Williams. But “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” has been almost unstoppable on the awards circuit and will likely win at the Oscars. Del Toro spends so much time in Toronto, though, we can consider him an honorary Canadian.
- NFB animators Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby are really waving the Canadian flag in the Best Animated Short category with their strange-but-true story of a sailor who survived the calamitous 1917 Halifax Harbour explosion. I’d like to see it win, but the smart money seems to be on “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” a lovely story about empathy and acceptance drawn from a bestselling children’s book. Best Live-Action Short, meanwhile, looks to go to BAFTA winner “An Irish Goodbye” while Best Documentary Short is as hard to call as usual — although I’d vote for the incredible “Haulout,” a look at what global warming has done to remote walrus colonies that has arguably the year’s most astounding reveal.
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” seems destined to take the Best International Feature trophy, although I’d give it to Lukas Dhont’s “Close,” a heartbreaking drama of two young boys who think almost as one person, until the shattering day when they don’t. “All Quiet” might also have the edge for Best Cinematography, Best Sound and Best Original Score, a haul which could make it one of the night’s biggest winners.
- Another likely multiple Oscar winner is “Elvis,” which besides Best Actor I see getting the gold for Best Costume Design, Best Production Design and maybe also Best Makeup and Hairstyling, although the latter could justifiably go to “The Whale” for its amazing transformation of Brendan Fraser into a 600-pound prisoner of his own body.
- James Cameron’s “Avatar” sequel is now the third most successful film in history, having recently replaced his earlier “Titanic” in that lofty spot. But I see it getting just one Oscar, for Best Visual Effects, which it deserves for the amazing water sequences alone.
- Another likely single Oscar winner is “Naatu Naatu,” the tune from an incredible dance in action epic “RRR,” which is competing for Best Original Song. It will probably win, despite close rivals “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.”
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