ST. PAUL, Minn. – What a difference a week makes.
At this time seven days ago, the Winnipeg Jets were forced to talk about a lethargic loss to the Ottawa Senators, extending their skid to six games (0-5-1).
Their defensive-zone play was leaky and the offence was running a bit dry.
A first-round matchup with the Colorado Avalanche seemed inevitable, with Winnipeg virtually assured of finishing third in the Central Division and starting the Stanley Cup playoffs on the road.
Fast forward to the present and the Jets are riding a three-game winning streak after Saturday’s 4-2 victory over the Minnesota Wild, which included three goals from the fourth line.
“You need all four lines going,” said Jets head coach Rick Bowness, following the contest. “You want to win the Stanley Cup? You have to have all four lines going and playing at their best.”
A skeptic would say two of those wins came against non-playoff teams and that’s true, but it’s the win over the Los Angeles Kings that set the stage for what came after.
You could also say the true tests are ahead, with dates looming this week with the Nashville Predators, Dallas Stars and the aforementioned Avalanche.
There are 10 more points available to the Jets and Avalanche and two points separate the two clubs, which should only serve to heighten the intensity.
Both clubs have a tough slog ahead and whoever gets the leg up in the chase for home-ice advantage in the first round is going to have to earn it:
Here are five storylines to monitor:
The top-6 composition
It has been three games since Bowness made the decision to put Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor on separate lines. That meant a reunion for Nikolaj Ehlers, Gabriel Vilardi and Scheifele, a trio that was dominant for much of December when Connor was out with a knee injury.
There are signs the line is winning its matchups, though the scoring hasn’t come easily — yet. It’s worth giving it a longer run to see if it can help spark Scheifele, who hasn’t been as dominant in the 10 games since he recorded his eighth career hat trick against the New York Rangers.
Scheifele has four assists in the past 10 games and only has one shot on goal during the past three outings. It’s important to remember that Scheifele’s two-way game has been excellent this season.
If the Jets are going to go on a lengthy run, they need both Scheifele and Connor producing offensively, whether they’re playing together or on separate lines.
Sean Monahan has been the driver of the second scoring line and made an excellent pass on Connor’s 31st goal of the season on Saturday. Connor has a goal and five points during the past three games — including three helpers against the Kings — and has generated eight shots on goal.
The most important development is that Vilardi has made an immediate impact after sitting out 15 games with an enlarged spleen and another undisclosed upper-body injury. A close second is that Tyler Toffoli has generated 10 shots on goal during his past two games and is back to looking dangerous.
That is part of what makes Toffoli a strong candidate to be back with Monahan at some point sooner than later, even though Cole Perfetti has done a solid job in his return to the top-6. That Perfetti has regained his offensive mojo is important for both the individual player and the Jets, whose depth is a strength they will be leaning on.
Can special teams round into form?
The return of Vilardi has clearly provided a boost to the power play, even if it didn’t generate as much against the Wild in two opportunities. The Jets are in the bottom third of the NHL with the man-advantage (18.3 per cent, 22nd). Those numbers are better with Vilardi on the ice and since the arrival of Monahan.
The penalty kill is of greater concern — as the Jets allowed a Kirill Kaprizov one-timer after a beautiful cross-seam pass from Mats Zuccarello on Saturday — finishing three-for-four on the afternoon. The Jets are 26th while shorthanded, checking in at a 76.4 per cent efficiency. Teams can often survive one of the units underperforming, but when both have issues it puts an inordinate amount of pressure for teams to be almost perfect at five-on-five during the postseason.
Even strength play has been the foundation for the Jets this season and they’ll be working to sharpen up that area down the stretch. They’ve taken incremental steps forward during the winning streak. Now, it’s about continuing to push forward on that front.
The Jennings chase
Elite-level goaltending has been a common theme for the Jets throughout the course of this season and that’s one of many elements that make them a dangerous opponent. The Jets and Florida Panthers are in a tight battle for the Jennings Trophy for fewest goals against allowed in the NHL — with the Jets in the lead right now.
The Jets have allowed five fewer goals than the Panthers, but have played 77 games compared to the 78 played by the Panthers. Connor Hellebuyck made his 57th start of the season on Saturday and is tracking to hit (and possibly eclipse) 60 starts once again.
Look for Laurent Brossoit to start against the Dallas Stars on Thursday. He should get two starts in these final five games. The most logical other one at this point seems like the game against the visiting Seattle Kraken, but it’s possible he gets the call in the season finale against the Vancouver Canucks.
Whether he can get the four appearances required to hit 25 (the minimum for inclusion on the trophy) remains to be seen. That will require at least a few relief appearances, even if those are brief. As Bowness said on Friday, “We’ll see.”
What impact will injuries have down the stretch?
The Jets enter the final two weeks of the season relatively healthy, with forward Nino Niederreiter sidelined with a left leg laceration he suffered against the Kings. The original timeline was roughly seven days, which leaves the door open for Niederreiter to return for the matchup with the Avalanche.
Niederreiter’s return to form is important for the Adam Lowry line that’s going to be tasked with trying to limit the damage Nathan MacKinnon does when the first round begins.
The Avalanche lost forward Mikko Rantanen after he took a big hit from Edmonton Oilers blue-liner Mattias Ekholm. Colorado head coach Jared Bednar would only say Rantanen would be under evaluation for a while, so whether he is ready for Game 1 remains to be seen. Rantanen is a force and his loss would be regarded similarly to the Jets losing Josh Morrissey and Scheifele against the Vegas Golden Knights last spring.
What about Rutger McGroarty?
The Jets’ top forward prospect will be at Xcel Energy Center this week with the Michigan Wolverines for the NCAA Frozen Four. There’s some buzz circulating that McGroarty is considering returning to school for his junior season and that could become more apparent as early as next week.
If McGroarty signs his entry-level deal, he would like to burn a year of that contract by appearing in an NHL game before the regular season wraps up. Having McGroarty around the Jets as an insurance policy for the playoff push would be extremely valuable for him, provided he signs on the dotted line.
Speaking of forward prospects, the Jets assigned Colby Barlow to the Manitoba Moose on Sunday after his junior squad, the Owen Sound Attack, was eliminated from the Ontario Hockey League. Barlow battled through injuries but still finished with 40 goals and 58 points in 50 games this season.
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Ken Wiebe
Sports reporter
Raised in the booming metropolis of Altona, Man., Ken Wiebe grew up wanting to play in the NHL, but after realizing his hands were more adept at typing than scoring, he shifted his attention to cover his favourite sport as a writer.
